Stimulus Verification Is a Universal and Effective Sampler in Multi-Modal Human Trajectory Prediction

Jianhua Sun, Yuxuan Li, Liang Chai, Cewu Lu; Proceedings of the IEEE/CVF Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (CVPR), 2023, pp. 22014-22023

To comprehensively cover the uncertainty of the future, the common practice of multi-modal human trajectory prediction is to first generate a set/distribution of candidate future trajectories and then sample required numbers of trajectories from them as final predictions. Even though a large number of previous researches develop various strong models to predict candidate trajectories, how to effectively sample the final ones has not received much attention yet. In this paper, we propose stimulus verification, serving as a universal and effective sampling process to improve the multi-modal prediction capability, where stimulus refers to the factor in the observation that may affect the future movements such as social interaction and scene context. Stimulus verification introduces a probabilistic model, denoted as stimulus verifier, to verify the coherence between a predicted future trajectory and its corresponding stimulus. By highlighting prediction samples with better stimulus-coherence, stimulus verification ensures sampled trajectories plausible from the stimulus' point of view and therefore aids in better multi-modal prediction performance. We implement stimulus verification on five representative prediction frameworks and conduct exhaustive experiments on three widely-used benchmarks. Superior results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.